European football. A bigger picture.
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European football. A bigger picture.
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Final five-season ranking · 2026/27 · UCL + UEL + UECL
Research prediction · Provisional
As of 13 Sept 2026 00:22 Warsaw · Generated 14 Sept 2026 04:11 Warsaw · 100,000 iterations
Stale snapshot: canonical data has changed. These probabilities have not been recomputed.
Final association rank · 100,000 research simulations
Ranks 1–10 shown. Zero hits are not proof of impossibility.
Open full rank distribution →Improve 0% · Same 100% · Worsen 0%
Ordered by current verified rank. Expected ranks are averages, not a certain final table.
| Now | Association | Current 5Y | Expected final 5Y | Expected rank | Modal rank | Improve / Same / Worsen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 103.130 | 117.788 | 1 | 1 | 0% / 100% / 0% |
| 2 | Italy | 88.303 | 99.470 | 2.21 | 2 | 0% / 81.53% / 18.47% |
| 3 | Spain | 83.243 | 93.872 | 3.64 | 4 | 3.77% / 28.08% / 68.15% |
| 4 | Germany | 81.259 | 95.685 | 3.15 | 3 | 70.46% / 29.53% / 0.01% |
| 5 | France | 68.724 | 81.909 | 5.32 | 5 | 0.02% / 67.95% / 32.03% |
| 6 | Portugal | 64.950 | 79.948 | 5.69 | 6 | 32.02% / 67.27% / 0.72% |
| 7 | Belgium | 59.050 | 69.270 | 7.12 | 7 | 0.76% / 87.18% / 12.06% |
| 8 | Netherlands | 52.562 | 64.336 | 8.04 | 8 | 11.3% / 74.21% / 14.48% |
| 9 | Turkey | 49.875 | 59.932 | 9 | 9 | 14.43% / 72.74% / 12.83% |
| 10 | Poland | 45.225 | 51.037 | 11.87 | 12 | 0.22% / 7.88% / 91.9% |
| 11 | Czechia | 44.625 | 54.312 | 10.61 | 10 | 50.92% / 32.71% / 16.37% |
| 12 | Greece | 44.212 | 53.771 | 10.81 | 11 | 78.34% / 16.83% / 4.83% |
| 13 | Norway | 38.612 | 46.290 | 13.62 | 14 | 6.64% / 26.8% / 66.57% |
| 14 | Denmark | 38.181 | 48.071 | 13 | 13 | 69.26% / 28.98% / 1.76% |
| 15 | Cyprus | 34.193 | 40.318 | 15 | 15 | 5.35% / 89.33% / 5.32% |
| 16 | Switzerland | 30.200 | 34.533 | 16.89 | 16 | 2.76% / 42.36% / 54.88% |
| 17 | Austria | 27.750 | 33.820 | 17.39 | 16 | 31.08% / 28.06% / 40.86% |
| 18 | Hungary | 27.312 | 31.897 | 18.83 | 18 | 24.14% / 21.95% / 53.92% |
| 19 | Scotland | 26.350 | 31.609 | 19.05 | 19 | 38.22% / 23.66% / 38.11% |
| 20 | Sweden | 25.750 | 27.864 | 23.05 | 24 | 2.83% / 5.89% / 91.27% |
| 21 | Croatia | 25.656 | 31.616 | 19.15 | 19 | 76.78% / 10.75% / 12.47% |
| 22 | Romania | 24.875 | 27.513 | 23.49 | 24 | 17.32% / 14.8% / 67.87% |
| 23 | Ukraine | 24.337 | 27.264 | 23.9 | 26 | 28.87% / 13.05% / 58.08% |
| 24 | Israel | 23.875 | 28.176 | 22.69 | 21 | 64.49% / 11.06% / 24.45% |
| 25 | Azerbaijan | 23.687 | 25.648 | 26.04 | 27 | 17.03% / 11.44% / 71.53% |
| 26 | Slovenia | 22.968 | 26.446 | 24.89 | 27 | 52.99% / 12.91% / 34.1% |
| 27 | Slovakia | 22.375 | 24.840 | 26.88 | 28 | 30.47% / 15.38% / 54.16% |
| 28 | Bulgaria | 20.562 | 27.228 | 23.9 | 24 | 87.33% / 10.01% / 2.66% |
| 29 | Serbia | 18.250 | 21.841 | 29.03 | 29 | 12.72% / 68.56% / 18.73% |
| 30 | Russia | 17.332 | 17.332 | 31.78 | 32 | 0% / 6.26% / 93.74% |
| 31 | Iceland | 17.145 | 17.145 | 33 | 33 | 0% / 2.95% / 97.05% |
| 32 | Republic of Ireland | 16.468 | 16.468 | 34.6 | 35 | 0% / 0.08% / 99.93% |
| 33 | Armenia | 15.812 | 19.256 | 30.72 | 30 | 84.47% / 8.88% / 6.65% |
| 34 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 14.093 | 17.189 | 33.03 | 31 | 54.86% / 9.01% / 36.13% |
| 35 | Kosovo | 13.906 | 13.906 | 37.92 | 38 | 0% / <0.01% / 100% |
| 36 | Latvia | 13.875 | 16.833 | 33.53 | 31 | 72.19% / 17.45% / 10.36% |
| 37 | Finland | 13.500 | 15.813 | 35.03 | 36 | 75.1% / 19.23% / 5.67% |
| 38 | Kazakhstan | 12.250 | 14.329 | 37.25 | 38 | 47.92% / 27.12% / 24.97% |
| 39 | Liechtenstein | 11.000 | 11.000 | 41.13 | 41 | 0% / 3.14% / 96.86% |
| 40 | Moldova | 10.250 | 10.250 | 42.79 | 43 | 0% / 0.5% / 99.5% |
| 41 | Faroe Islands | 9.750 | 9.750 | 44.31 | 44 | 0% / 0.03% / 99.97% |
| 42 | North Macedonia | 9.134 | 9.134 | 45.78 | 46 | 0% / 0% / 100% |
| 43 | Albania | 9.000 | 11.386 | 41.12 | 40 | 70.75% / 12.8% / 16.45% |
| 44 | Belarus | 8.375 | 8.375 | 47.46 | 48 | 0% / <0.01% / 100% |
| 45 | Lithuania | 8.125 | 10.429 | 42.98 | 46 | 62.73% / 11.21% / 26.05% |
| 46 | Andorra | 7.832 | 12.410 | 39.87 | 39 | 95.47% / 3.18% / 1.35% |
| 47 | Malta | 7.625 | 7.625 | 48.73 | 49 | 0% / 0.33% / 99.67% |
| 48 | Gibraltar | 7.207 | 10.675 | 42.76 | 40 | 92.28% / 6.64% / 1.08% |
| 49 | Estonia | 7.166 | 7.166 | 49.94 | 50 | 0% / 5.55% / 94.45% |
| 50 | Northern Ireland | 6.625 | 6.625 | 51 | 51 | 0% / 0.38% / 99.62% |
| 51 | Georgia | 6.500 | 8.910 | 46.05 | 49 | 99.62% / 0.38% / 0% |
| 52 | Luxembourg | 6.250 | 6.250 | 52 | 52 | 0% / 100% / 0% |
| 53 | Montenegro | 5.833 | 5.833 | 53 | 53 | 0% / 100% / 0% |
| 54 | Wales | 4.374 | 4.374 | 54 | 54 | 0% / 100% / 0% |
| 55 | San Marino | 2.998 | 2.998 | 55 | 55 | 0% / 100% / 0% |
Run ec0b94f4-f298-5e4d-be34-8c1e0875f5ad · m11-research-simple_elo-hnone-dom1-home1-v2 · VALIDATED_REFERENCE_BASELINE
Research only · 2022/23, 2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26, 2026/27 · canonical:rankings.load_ranking_sources:active-association-registry-v1
Uncertainty is conditional on the fixed provider. This is not prospective model validation.
Team-official disciplinary data is partially approximated.
Current observations: BSD Football API. Verified identity and history: Wikipedia contributors via the MediaWiki API. Country flags: flag-icons (MIT). Club marks: Wikimedia Commons and official club sites — asset registry.