Now 6Expected 8.94UEL
- Top 8
- 58.28%
- Top 24
- 95.24%
- Winner
- 10.33%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 82.41%
- QF
- 51.41%
- SF
- 31.18%
- Final
- 18.51%
European football. A bigger picture.
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SEASON 2026/27 RESEARCH PREDICTION · PROVISIONAL
Predictions
Compare where clubs and associations could finish.
- Sporting snapshot
- Generated
- Simulations
- 100,000
Previous prediction · Sporting data has changedThe previous complete prediction remains available.
Simple Elo reference · Research simulationEuropa League
League-phase places & knockout progression
36 clubs · Expected = average final position · Top 24 includes Top 8
| Club | Now | Expected | Top 8 | Top 24 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 8.94 | 58.28% | 95.24% | 82.41% | 51.41% | 31.18% | 18.51% | 10.33% | |
| 7 | 9.24 | 56.64% | 94.89% | 81.57% | 50.51% | 30.6% | 18.25% | 10.17% | |
| 13 | 10.83 | 48.84% | 91.55% | 73.2% | 40.07% | 21.27% | 11.33% | 5.7% | |
| 5 | 11.84 | 43.82% | 89.49% | 68.13% | 35.35% | 17.87% | 8.97% | 4.45% | |
| — | 12.16 | 42.33% | 88.7% | 66.23% | 33.37% | 16.33% | 7.82% | 3.93% | |
| 3 | 12.42 | 40.7% | 88.26% | 64.7% | 31.63% | 15.02% | 7.12% | 3.45% | |
| — | 12.88 | 39.8% | 86.41% | 63.84% | 31.92% | 15.72% | 7.5% | 3.62% | |
| — | 13.3 | 37.46% | 85.72% | 63.59% | 33.35% | 17.33% | 8.9% | 4.46% | |
| 1 | 13.3 | 36.68% | 86.18% | 62.84% | 32.09% | 16.12% | 7.95% | 3.95% | |
| 2 | 14.17 | 33.23% | 83.71% | 58.02% | 27.76% | 12.87% | 5.79% | 2.69% | |
| 14 | 14.55 | 32.35% | 82.25% | 56.24% | 26.05% | 11.76% | 5.19% | 2.41% | |
| — | 15.4 | 27.01% | 81.12% | 58.09% | 31.83% | 17.21% | 9.17% | 4.78% | |
| 4 | 15.61 | 28.2% | 79.08% | 53.11% | 25.4% | 11.84% | 5.36% | 2.46% | |
| — | 15.91 | 27.17% | 78.02% | 53.3% | 26.5% | 13.06% | 6.37% | 3.08% | |
| — | 16.24 | 25.94% | 77.1% | 49.76% | 22.46% | 10.03% | 4.36% | 1.97% | |
| 28 | 18.13 | 19.1% | 71.35% | 48.21% | 25.58% | 13.44% | 7% | 3.62% | |
| — | 18.77 | 17.86% | 68.06% | 42.05% | 19.39% | 8.93% | 3.89% | 1.79% | |
| — | 18.91 | 17.31% | 67.6% | 42.29% | 20.24% | 9.62% | 4.62% | 2.24% | |
| — | 19.35 | 15.33% | 66.69% | 42.83% | 22% | 11.21% | 5.68% | 2.79% | |
| 35 | 19.39 | 16.6% | 65.52% | 43.33% | 22.53% | 11.69% | 6.15% | 3.12% | |
| 34 | 19.65 | 15.57% | 65.01% | 42.95% | 22.6% | 11.9% | 6.25% | 3.17% | |
| — | 20.21 | 13.99% | 62.54% | 36.79% | 16.46% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 1.49% | |
| — | 21.05 | 12.61% | 58.98% | 37.26% | 18.86% | 9.46% | 4.78% | 2.39% | |
| 21 | 21.07 | 12.53% | 58.72% | 36.03% | 17.69% | 8.68% | 4.22% | 2.09% | |
| — | 22.04 | 10.44% | 54.76% | 32.56% | 15.73% | 7.49% | 3.51% | 1.72% | |
| — | 22.18 | 10.21% | 54.09% | 31.82% | 15.2% | 7.22% | 3.4% | 1.6% | |
| 33 | 22.72 | 9.25% | 51.9% | 31.05% | 15.05% | 7.31% | 3.58% | 1.72% | |
| — | 22.97 | 8.9% | 50.33% | 27.87% | 12.33% | 5.42% | 2.37% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 23.58 | 8.12% | 47.43% | 26.54% | 11.83% | 5.14% | 2.27% | 1.05% | |
| 32 | 23.69 | 7.72% | 47.22% | 25.92% | 11.31% | 5.01% | 2.17% | 0.99% | |
| — | 24.22 | 6.96% | 44.73% | 24.92% | 11.48% | 5.21% | 2.32% | 1.08% | |
| — | 24.31 | 4.87% | 44.72% | 17.79% | 5.04% | 1.38% | 0.37% | 0.1% | |
| — | 24.71 | 4.53% | 42.55% | 16.77% | 4.77% | 1.35% | 0.35% | 0.11% | |
| — | 25.12 | 5.33% | 40.8% | 18.59% | 6.19% | 2.05% | 0.66% | 0.22% | |
| — | 26.43 | 3.74% | 34.63% | 15.3% | 5.16% | 1.7% | 0.52% | 0.18% | |
| — | 30.74 | 0.6% | 14.7% | 4.11% | 0.87% | 0.18% | 0.04% | <0.01% |
Now 7Expected 9.24UEL
- Top 8
- 56.64%
- Top 24
- 94.89%
- Winner
- 10.17%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 81.57%
- QF
- 50.51%
- SF
- 30.6%
- Final
- 18.25%
Now 13Expected 10.83UEL
- Top 8
- 48.84%
- Top 24
- 91.55%
- Winner
- 5.7%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 73.2%
- QF
- 40.07%
- SF
- 21.27%
- Final
- 11.33%
Now 5Expected 11.84UEL
- Top 8
- 43.82%
- Top 24
- 89.49%
- Winner
- 4.45%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 68.13%
- QF
- 35.35%
- SF
- 17.87%
- Final
- 8.97%
Now —Expected 12.16UEL
- Top 8
- 42.33%
- Top 24
- 88.7%
- Winner
- 3.93%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 66.23%
- QF
- 33.37%
- SF
- 16.33%
- Final
- 7.82%
Now 3Expected 12.42UEL
- Top 8
- 40.7%
- Top 24
- 88.26%
- Winner
- 3.45%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 64.7%
- QF
- 31.63%
- SF
- 15.02%
- Final
- 7.12%
Now —Expected 12.88UEL
- Top 8
- 39.8%
- Top 24
- 86.41%
- Winner
- 3.62%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 63.84%
- QF
- 31.92%
- SF
- 15.72%
- Final
- 7.5%
Now —Expected 13.3UEL
- Top 8
- 37.46%
- Top 24
- 85.72%
- Winner
- 4.46%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 63.59%
- QF
- 33.35%
- SF
- 17.33%
- Final
- 8.9%
Now 1Expected 13.3UEL
- Top 8
- 36.68%
- Top 24
- 86.18%
- Winner
- 3.95%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 62.84%
- QF
- 32.09%
- SF
- 16.12%
- Final
- 7.95%
Now 2Expected 14.17UEL
- Top 8
- 33.23%
- Top 24
- 83.71%
- Winner
- 2.69%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 58.02%
- QF
- 27.76%
- SF
- 12.87%
- Final
- 5.79%
Now 14Expected 14.55UEL
- Top 8
- 32.35%
- Top 24
- 82.25%
- Winner
- 2.41%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 56.24%
- QF
- 26.05%
- SF
- 11.76%
- Final
- 5.19%
Now —Expected 15.4UEL
- Top 8
- 27.01%
- Top 24
- 81.12%
- Winner
- 4.78%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 58.09%
- QF
- 31.83%
- SF
- 17.21%
- Final
- 9.17%
Now 4Expected 15.61UEL
- Top 8
- 28.2%
- Top 24
- 79.08%
- Winner
- 2.46%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 53.11%
- QF
- 25.4%
- SF
- 11.84%
- Final
- 5.36%
Now —Expected 15.91UEL
- Top 8
- 27.17%
- Top 24
- 78.02%
- Winner
- 3.08%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 53.3%
- QF
- 26.5%
- SF
- 13.06%
- Final
- 6.37%
Now —Expected 16.24UEL
- Top 8
- 25.94%
- Top 24
- 77.1%
- Winner
- 1.97%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 49.76%
- QF
- 22.46%
- SF
- 10.03%
- Final
- 4.36%
Now 28Expected 18.13UEL
- Top 8
- 19.1%
- Top 24
- 71.35%
- Winner
- 3.62%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 48.21%
- QF
- 25.58%
- SF
- 13.44%
- Final
- 7%
Now —Expected 18.77UEL
- Top 8
- 17.86%
- Top 24
- 68.06%
- Winner
- 1.79%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 42.05%
- QF
- 19.39%
- SF
- 8.93%
- Final
- 3.89%
Now —Expected 18.91UEL
- Top 8
- 17.31%
- Top 24
- 67.6%
- Winner
- 2.24%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 42.29%
- QF
- 20.24%
- SF
- 9.62%
- Final
- 4.62%
Now —Expected 19.35UEL
- Top 8
- 15.33%
- Top 24
- 66.69%
- Winner
- 2.79%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 42.83%
- QF
- 22%
- SF
- 11.21%
- Final
- 5.68%
Now 35Expected 19.39UEL
- Top 8
- 16.6%
- Top 24
- 65.52%
- Winner
- 3.12%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 43.33%
- QF
- 22.53%
- SF
- 11.69%
- Final
- 6.15%
Now 34Expected 19.65UEL
- Top 8
- 15.57%
- Top 24
- 65.01%
- Winner
- 3.17%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 42.95%
- QF
- 22.6%
- SF
- 11.9%
- Final
- 6.25%
Now —Expected 20.21UEL
- Top 8
- 13.99%
- Top 24
- 62.54%
- Winner
- 1.49%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 36.79%
- QF
- 16.46%
- SF
- 7.4%
- Final
- 3.3%
Now —Expected 21.05UEL
- Top 8
- 12.61%
- Top 24
- 58.98%
- Winner
- 2.39%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 37.26%
- QF
- 18.86%
- SF
- 9.46%
- Final
- 4.78%
Now 21Expected 21.07UEL
- Top 8
- 12.53%
- Top 24
- 58.72%
- Winner
- 2.09%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 36.03%
- QF
- 17.69%
- SF
- 8.68%
- Final
- 4.22%
Now —Expected 22.04UEL
- Top 8
- 10.44%
- Top 24
- 54.76%
- Winner
- 1.72%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 32.56%
- QF
- 15.73%
- SF
- 7.49%
- Final
- 3.51%
Now —Expected 22.18UEL
- Top 8
- 10.21%
- Top 24
- 54.09%
- Winner
- 1.6%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 31.82%
- QF
- 15.2%
- SF
- 7.22%
- Final
- 3.4%
Now 33Expected 22.72UEL
- Top 8
- 9.25%
- Top 24
- 51.9%
- Winner
- 1.72%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 31.05%
- QF
- 15.05%
- SF
- 7.31%
- Final
- 3.58%
Now —Expected 22.97UEL
- Top 8
- 8.9%
- Top 24
- 50.33%
- Winner
- 1.1%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 27.87%
- QF
- 12.33%
- SF
- 5.42%
- Final
- 2.37%
Now 36Expected 23.58UEL
- Top 8
- 8.12%
- Top 24
- 47.43%
- Winner
- 1.05%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 26.54%
- QF
- 11.83%
- SF
- 5.14%
- Final
- 2.27%
Now 32Expected 23.69UEL
- Top 8
- 7.72%
- Top 24
- 47.22%
- Winner
- 0.99%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 25.92%
- QF
- 11.31%
- SF
- 5.01%
- Final
- 2.17%
Now —Expected 24.22UEL
- Top 8
- 6.96%
- Top 24
- 44.73%
- Winner
- 1.08%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 24.92%
- QF
- 11.48%
- SF
- 5.21%
- Final
- 2.32%
Now —Expected 24.31UEL
- Top 8
- 4.87%
- Top 24
- 44.72%
- Winner
- 0.1%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 17.79%
- QF
- 5.04%
- SF
- 1.38%
- Final
- 0.37%
Now —Expected 24.71UEL
- Top 8
- 4.53%
- Top 24
- 42.55%
- Winner
- 0.11%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 16.77%
- QF
- 4.77%
- SF
- 1.35%
- Final
- 0.35%
Now —Expected 25.12UEL
- Top 8
- 5.33%
- Top 24
- 40.8%
- Winner
- 0.22%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 18.59%
- QF
- 6.19%
- SF
- 2.05%
- Final
- 0.66%
Now —Expected 26.43UEL
- Top 8
- 3.74%
- Top 24
- 34.63%
- Winner
- 0.18%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 15.3%
- QF
- 5.16%
- SF
- 1.7%
- Final
- 0.52%
Now —Expected 30.74UEL
- Top 8
- 0.6%
- Top 24
- 14.7%
- Winner
- <0.01%
Knockout progression
- R16
- 4.11%
- QF
- 0.87%
- SF
- 0.18%
- Final
- 0.04%