SEASON 2026/27 RESEARCH PREDICTION · PROVISIONAL

Predictions

Compare where clubs and associations could finish.

Sporting snapshot: 22 Sept 2026, 23:10
Generated: 23 Sept 2026, 00:51
Simulations: 100,000

Previous prediction · Sporting data has changedThe previous complete prediction remains available.

Simple Elo reference · Research simulation

Prediction source

Conference League

League-phase places & knockout progression

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36 clubs · Expected = average final position · Top 24 includes Top 8

Clubs research prediction comparison. Probabilities are percentages, not guarantees.
Club	Now	Expected	Top 8	Top 24	R16	QF	SF	Final	Winner
Braga	2	10.3	51.75%	92.41%	77.16%	45.8%	26.09%	14.69%	7.8%
Inter Club d'Escaldes	30	12.18	43.59%	87.52%	68.81%	38%	20.43%	10.83%	5.6%
Red Star Belgrade	8	12.69	41.77%	85.75%	70.55%	43.35%	26.19%	15.39%	8.64%
Midtjylland	7	13.51	36.84%	84.83%	66.86%	39.81%	23.1%	13.13%	7.03%
Ajax	3	14.77	33.02%	80.38%	58.17%	29.96%	15.17%	7.57%	3.85%
Brann	20	15.87	29.28%	76.84%	53.87%	27.22%	13.51%	6.59%	3.22%
Borac Banja Luka	18	15.99	29.02%	76.27%	58.74%	34.99%	20.46%	11.69%	6.34%
Riga	25	16.33	27.53%	75.33%	55.67%	31.51%	17.39%	9.41%	4.96%
Hadjuk Split	26	17.15	24.54%	72.74%	48.82%	23.84%	11.45%	5.45%	2.61%
Atalanta	1	17.34	24.19%	72.1%	51.34%	27.81%	14.81%	7.74%	3.89%
Pafos	11	17.36	24.64%	71.48%	50.58%	27%	14.18%	7.34%	3.71%
Universitatea Craiova	24	17.37	23.91%	71.97%	47.72%	23.05%	10.99%	5.25%	2.48%
Copenhagen	6	17.39	24.22%	71.63%	50.6%	27.3%	14.48%	7.45%	3.8%
CSKA Sofia	32	17.49	23.95%	71.32%	48.33%	24.42%	12.22%	5.92%	2.93%
Brighton & Hove Albion	12	17.98	22.63%	69.34%	45.66%	21.84%	10.18%	4.8%	2.29%
Lincoln Red Imps	17	18.05	22.33%	69.2%	47%	23.84%	11.86%	5.81%	2.9%
SC Freiburg	4	18.14	22.12%	68.83%	45.47%	21.94%	10.52%	4.99%	2.4%
Panathinaikos	10	18.23	21.97%	68.38%	46.17%	23.18%	11.53%	5.64%	2.76%
Monaco	5	18.32	21.58%	68.13%	45.82%	23.14%	11.46%	5.59%	2.71%
Jablonec	27	18.65	20.64%	66.94%	44.04%	21.59%	10.39%	5%	2.38%
Lugano	13	18.85	20.02%	66.19%	41.53%	18.86%	8.31%	3.59%	1.67%
Iberia 1999	35	18.86	19.92%	66.28%	41.72%	19%	8.51%	3.74%	1.69%
Nordsjælland	28	18.86	20.09%	66.14%	42.43%	19.93%	9.25%	4.3%	1.98%
Trabzonspor	23	19.12	19.17%	65.28%	42.06%	20.21%	9.54%	4.41%	2.04%
Heart of Midlothian	21	19.27	18.92%	64.67%	40.56%	18.53%	8.3%	3.75%	1.72%
Egnatia	36	19.29	18.74%	64.59%	41.06%	19.33%	9%	4.11%	1.94%
Kauno Žalgiris	33	19.55	18.42%	63.38%	39%	17.13%	7.52%	3.15%	1.46%
Twente	16	19.74	17.47%	63.04%	36.61%	14.57%	5.52%	2.06%	0.83%
KuPS	15	19.85	16.77%	62.8%	39.03%	18.25%	8.39%	3.77%	1.76%
Kairat	22	21.1	13.69%	57.64%	32.63%	13.4%	5.32%	2.06%	0.83%
Mjällby	34	21.13	14.64%	57.1%	33.89%	14.77%	6.36%	2.61%	1.13%
Thun	31	21.46	13.1%	56.25%	28.63%	9.34%	2.82%	0.84%	0.27%
Gent	9	24.61	6.81%	42.48%	20.31%	7.16%	2.53%	0.83%	0.29%
Sint-Truiden	19	25.96	4.65%	36.41%	13.89%	3.44%	0.78%	0.18%	0.04%
Getafe	14	26.22	4.91%	34.83%	13.16%	3.14%	0.65%	0.13%	0.02%
AGF	29	27.02	3.19%	31.56%	12.13%	3.35%	0.84%	0.2%	0.05%

Braga

Now 2Expected 10.3UECL

Top 8: 51.75%
Top 24: 92.41%
Winner: 7.8%

Knockout progression

R16: 77.16%
QF: 45.8%
SF: 26.09%
Final: 14.69%

Inter Club d'Escaldes

Now 30Expected 12.18UECL

Top 8: 43.59%
Top 24: 87.52%
Winner: 5.6%

Knockout progression

R16: 68.81%
QF: 38%
SF: 20.43%
Final: 10.83%

Red Star Belgrade

Now 8Expected 12.69UECL

Top 8: 41.77%
Top 24: 85.75%
Winner: 8.64%

Knockout progression

R16: 70.55%
QF: 43.35%
SF: 26.19%
Final: 15.39%

Midtjylland

Now 7Expected 13.51UECL

Top 8: 36.84%
Top 24: 84.83%
Winner: 7.03%

Knockout progression

R16: 66.86%
QF: 39.81%
SF: 23.1%
Final: 13.13%

Ajax

Now 3Expected 14.77UECL

Top 8: 33.02%
Top 24: 80.38%
Winner: 3.85%

Knockout progression

R16: 58.17%
QF: 29.96%
SF: 15.17%
Final: 7.57%

Brann

Now 20Expected 15.87UECL

Top 8: 29.28%
Top 24: 76.84%
Winner: 3.22%

Knockout progression

R16: 53.87%
QF: 27.22%
SF: 13.51%
Final: 6.59%

Borac Banja Luka

Now 18Expected 15.99UECL

Top 8: 29.02%
Top 24: 76.27%
Winner: 6.34%

Knockout progression

R16: 58.74%
QF: 34.99%
SF: 20.46%
Final: 11.69%

Riga

Now 25Expected 16.33UECL

Top 8: 27.53%
Top 24: 75.33%
Winner: 4.96%

Knockout progression

R16: 55.67%
QF: 31.51%
SF: 17.39%
Final: 9.41%

Hadjuk Split

Now 26Expected 17.15UECL

Top 8: 24.54%
Top 24: 72.74%
Winner: 2.61%

Knockout progression

R16: 48.82%
QF: 23.84%
SF: 11.45%
Final: 5.45%

Atalanta

Now 1Expected 17.34UECL

Top 8: 24.19%
Top 24: 72.1%
Winner: 3.89%

Knockout progression

R16: 51.34%
QF: 27.81%
SF: 14.81%
Final: 7.74%

Pafos

Now 11Expected 17.36UECL

Top 8: 24.64%
Top 24: 71.48%
Winner: 3.71%

Knockout progression

R16: 50.58%
QF: 27%
SF: 14.18%
Final: 7.34%

Universitatea Craiova

Now 24Expected 17.37UECL

Top 8: 23.91%
Top 24: 71.97%
Winner: 2.48%

Knockout progression

R16: 47.72%
QF: 23.05%
SF: 10.99%
Final: 5.25%

Copenhagen

Now 6Expected 17.39UECL

Top 8: 24.22%
Top 24: 71.63%
Winner: 3.8%

Knockout progression

R16: 50.6%
QF: 27.3%
SF: 14.48%
Final: 7.45%

CSKA Sofia

Now 32Expected 17.49UECL

Top 8: 23.95%
Top 24: 71.32%
Winner: 2.93%

Knockout progression

R16: 48.33%
QF: 24.42%
SF: 12.22%
Final: 5.92%

Brighton & Hove Albion

Now 12Expected 17.98UECL

Top 8: 22.63%
Top 24: 69.34%
Winner: 2.29%

Knockout progression

R16: 45.66%
QF: 21.84%
SF: 10.18%
Final: 4.8%

Lincoln Red Imps

Now 17Expected 18.05UECL

Top 8: 22.33%
Top 24: 69.2%
Winner: 2.9%

Knockout progression

R16: 47%
QF: 23.84%
SF: 11.86%
Final: 5.81%

SC Freiburg

Now 4Expected 18.14UECL

Top 8: 22.12%
Top 24: 68.83%
Winner: 2.4%

Knockout progression

R16: 45.47%
QF: 21.94%
SF: 10.52%
Final: 4.99%

Panathinaikos

Now 10Expected 18.23UECL

Top 8: 21.97%
Top 24: 68.38%
Winner: 2.76%

Knockout progression

R16: 46.17%
QF: 23.18%
SF: 11.53%
Final: 5.64%

Monaco

Now 5Expected 18.32UECL

Top 8: 21.58%
Top 24: 68.13%
Winner: 2.71%

Knockout progression

R16: 45.82%
QF: 23.14%
SF: 11.46%
Final: 5.59%

Jablonec

Now 27Expected 18.65UECL

Top 8: 20.64%
Top 24: 66.94%
Winner: 2.38%

Knockout progression

R16: 44.04%
QF: 21.59%
SF: 10.39%
Final: 5%

Lugano

Now 13Expected 18.85UECL

Top 8: 20.02%
Top 24: 66.19%
Winner: 1.67%

Knockout progression

R16: 41.53%
QF: 18.86%
SF: 8.31%
Final: 3.59%

Iberia 1999

Now 35Expected 18.86UECL

Top 8: 19.92%
Top 24: 66.28%
Winner: 1.69%

Knockout progression

R16: 41.72%
QF: 19%
SF: 8.51%
Final: 3.74%

Nordsjælland

Now 28Expected 18.86UECL

Top 8: 20.09%
Top 24: 66.14%
Winner: 1.98%

Knockout progression

R16: 42.43%
QF: 19.93%
SF: 9.25%
Final: 4.3%

Trabzonspor

Now 23Expected 19.12UECL

Top 8: 19.17%
Top 24: 65.28%
Winner: 2.04%

Knockout progression

R16: 42.06%
QF: 20.21%
SF: 9.54%
Final: 4.41%

Heart of Midlothian

Now 21Expected 19.27UECL

Top 8: 18.92%
Top 24: 64.67%
Winner: 1.72%

Knockout progression

R16: 40.56%
QF: 18.53%
SF: 8.3%
Final: 3.75%

Egnatia

Now 36Expected 19.29UECL

Top 8: 18.74%
Top 24: 64.59%
Winner: 1.94%

Knockout progression

R16: 41.06%
QF: 19.33%
SF: 9%
Final: 4.11%

Kauno Žalgiris

Now 33Expected 19.55UECL

Top 8: 18.42%
Top 24: 63.38%
Winner: 1.46%

Knockout progression

R16: 39%
QF: 17.13%
SF: 7.52%
Final: 3.15%

Twente

Now 16Expected 19.74UECL

Top 8: 17.47%
Top 24: 63.04%
Winner: 0.83%

Knockout progression

R16: 36.61%
QF: 14.57%
SF: 5.52%
Final: 2.06%

KuPS

Now 15Expected 19.85UECL

Top 8: 16.77%
Top 24: 62.8%
Winner: 1.76%

Knockout progression

R16: 39.03%
QF: 18.25%
SF: 8.39%
Final: 3.77%

Kairat

Now 22Expected 21.1UECL

Top 8: 13.69%
Top 24: 57.64%
Winner: 0.83%

Knockout progression

R16: 32.63%
QF: 13.4%
SF: 5.32%
Final: 2.06%

Mjällby

Now 34Expected 21.13UECL

Top 8: 14.64%
Top 24: 57.1%
Winner: 1.13%

Knockout progression

R16: 33.89%
QF: 14.77%
SF: 6.36%
Final: 2.61%

Thun

Now 31Expected 21.46UECL

Top 8: 13.1%
Top 24: 56.25%
Winner: 0.27%

Knockout progression

R16: 28.63%
QF: 9.34%
SF: 2.82%
Final: 0.84%

Gent

Now 9Expected 24.61UECL

Top 8: 6.81%
Top 24: 42.48%
Winner: 0.29%

Knockout progression

R16: 20.31%
QF: 7.16%
SF: 2.53%
Final: 0.83%

Sint-Truiden

Now 19Expected 25.96UECL

Top 8: 4.65%
Top 24: 36.41%
Winner: 0.04%

Knockout progression

R16: 13.89%
QF: 3.44%
SF: 0.78%
Final: 0.18%

Getafe

Now 14Expected 26.22UECL

Top 8: 4.91%
Top 24: 34.83%
Winner: 0.02%

Knockout progression

R16: 13.16%
QF: 3.14%
SF: 0.65%
Final: 0.13%

AGF

Now 29Expected 27.02UECL

Top 8: 3.19%
Top 24: 31.56%
Winner: 0.05%

Knockout progression

R16: 12.13%
QF: 3.35%
SF: 0.84%
Final: 0.2%

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